Unrestricted Thoughts - Pending UFA 2023 NHL Defensemen candidates for the Florida Panthers

By Daniel López (@dlolobo) 02/15/2023 

Last night, the Florida Panthers lost 6-2 to a St. Louis Blues team that is showcasing some of their veteran players for what appears to be a rebuild, or least a "re-tooling." Following an enthralling 2021-22 regular season that led to the best regular season in franchise history and a ho-hum President's Trophy (the curse is real!), the 2022-23 season has largely been a disappointing one for the Cats. Currently on the outside looking into a wildcard playoff position, the calculus and scoreboard watching of the teams they're competing with becomes moot when they lose "must-win" games. There is still hope, of course! 

Whether they qualify for this season's Stanley Cup playoffs or not, the team is in dire need of upgrading a blue line core that was mangled after a blockbuster offseason trade to acquire superstar Matthew Tkachuk. The cap crunch that so many NHL teams looking to contend get squeezed by, necessitated the signing of a low-cost option like 36-year old veteran Marc Staal and demanded more ice time for players like Gustav Forsling and Brandon Montour. Staal replaced an effective defensive defenseman in MacKenzie Weegar, who was included in the trade with Calgary. Montour has flourished with a career season, while Forsling's play has been inconsistent and at times, simply bad, with first pair minutes. Aaron Ekblad has largely improved his play in the last two months, after a dismally slow start marred by a stint on long-term injured reserve with a lower body injury. It can be argued that the team's third pair of Radko Gudas and Josh Mahura, while not always perfect, has been the Panthers' most consistent pair. Strong even strength defensive metrics buoy this point. Gudas has been mentoring Mahura, a waiver wire pick-up right before the start of the season from Anaheim, whose encouraging play was recently rewarded with a 1-year extension. Mahura will remain a restricted free agent after the 2023-24 season. Gudas is a pending unrestricted free agent and his future in Sunrise beyond this season remains unknown. Defensemen from their AHL affiliate in Charlotte remain either inconsistent (Carlsson, Kiersted) or unproven (Ludvig, Gildon, Kinnunen). Can the Panthers find upgrades for their incomplete blueline in unrestricted free agency this summer? 

Ideally, the market opening on July 1st will bring the Panthers a new partner for Aaron Ekblad, capable of being a defensive anchor to support Ekblad's forays in the offensive zone and sharing the burden of facing the opposing teams' top lines. This would also allow Gustav Forsling to slot into the team's second pair, a role many feel he's more suited for. Let's take a look at 5 potential candidates using some established advanced statistical cards (from @JFreshHockey) and other resources. 

Matt Dumba, Age 28.5, 6' 0 181 lbs. Shoots: Right 

Scouting Report (from sportsforecaster.com): "The right-handed defenseman has a rare combination of physicality and dynamic offensive chops, and he can play 20-plus minutes on a nightly basis. He has electric skating ability, can rush the puck and owns a big shot, but is also aggressive and likes to make the kind of open-ice hits that can inspire his team. He is also willing to give up his body to block shots, but has also been known to struggle defensively on occasion."

I will add that Dumba occasionally pulls himself out of position when chasing hits in the open ice or near his own blueline. His poor play has led to healthy scratches by Wild coach Dean Evason this season. Dumba has played a lot of minutes for the Wild in his career so far and his defensive zone play might already be on the decline. All signs are currently pointing to the Wild not having Dumba in their future plans. 

Career stats (from NHL.com) 

Below are Dumba's most recent JFreshHockey stats cards.

Dmitry Orlov, Age 31.5, 5'11 214 lbs. Shoots: Left 

Scouting Report (from sportsforecaster.com): "Has the kind of two-way game NHL coaches love. He has the mobility and skills to put up good offensive numbers, while at the same time being an excellent running mate for an offensive partner. Is also enough of a physical force to make opposing forwards uncomfortable. Has to make sure he is not too aggressive because he can take himself out of position." 

Currently a top pair defenseman for the Capitals, Orlov's a steady, if unheralded defenseman outside of Washington D.C. I can see the Caps re-signing him to help his countrymate Alexander Ovechkin chase the Gretzky goaIs record. If the Caps decide not to re-sign him, Orlov may be an effective short term solution, but he'll be probably chasing after his last long-term deal for the latter stages of his career. The Capitals have faced injury woes this season that have required Orlov to increase his ice time. As you'll see below, the increase in ice time and facing stronger competition seems to have negatively impacted Orlov's even strength defensive metrics. Do the Panthers bite the bullet to sign him? Would he fit with Ekblad? 

Career stats for Orlov (from NHL.com)

Below are Orlov's most recent JFreshHockey stats cards: 

Damon Severson, Age 28.5, 6'2 205 lbs. Shoots: Right 

Scouting Report (from sportsforecaster.com) "Has NHL size and strength, moves well and has a good point shot. He can play 20-plus minutes every night and be used in all situations. He is not going to put up huge offensive numbers and needs to improve his play in his own zone, but can be very effective as long as he is not asked to do too much." 

A bump down to New Jersey's 2nd pair this season and facing lesser competition has actually continued a regression in Severson's even strength defensive metrics over the past 3 seasons. That's usually not a good sign and could be why the Devils may let him walk this summer. 

Career stats for Severson (from NHL.com)

Below are Severson's most recent JFreshHockey stats cards: 

Brian Dumoulin, Age: 31.4 6'4 207 lbs. Shoots: Left 

Scouting Report (from sportsforecaster.com) "The big, mobile defenseman can move the puck efficiently and log a lot of minutes. Has the size to play an effective shutdown game and enough offensive skill to contribute occasionally at the other end of the ice. Does not play with the physicality his size would indicate, but does not get pushed around, either. Is a great complement to an offensive defense partner."

Fans outside Pittsburgh don't typically hear much about Dumoulin, and that's usually what you want from a defensive-minded blueliner. A second pair defenseman for the Penguins, Dumoulin is a disciplined defender who can eat a lot of minutes. Can he play the type of minutes needed to be on the top pair of a hopeful contender at this stage of his career though? 

Career stats for Dumoulin (from NHL.com)

Below are Dumoulin's most recent JFreshHockey stats cards: 

Ryan Graves, Age: 27.7, 6'5 220 lbs. Shoots: Left. 

Scouting Report (from sportsforecaster.com) "Is a huge defenseman who can excel in a shutdown role, especially as he continues to learn how to use his size to its max. Not likely to put up big offensive numbers, but he can move the puck adequately and has a heavy point shot. Continues to show he is worthy of more playing time as his game matures, and he is a good partner for an offensive defenseman." 

Currently with less than 300 career games played, Ryan Graves is the least experienced UFA in this prospective crop of free agents. The old adage that an NHL defenseman needs around 400 career games to find his game may end up applying to Graves. His size is tantalizing and is playing a more disciplined game for the Devils, with lower penalty minutes numbers compared to earlier in his career.

Career stats for Graves (from NHL.com): 

Below are Graves' most recent JFreshHockey stats cards:

These are just 5 players Panthers’ fans may want keep an eye on for the rest of the 22-23 regular season and into the playoffs. 

In the near future, I plan on looking into some other UFA blueliners up for new contracts in the summer of 2023. 

Have anyone in particular in mind you'd like for me to write about? Feel free to contact me on Twitter @dlolobo